Risk-reward and break-even win rate calculator

How often do you need to win? It depends on your reward to risk. Enter both to see the break-even win rate (before costs), your expectancy per trade in R and what that means over a number of trades.

Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward to risk). Expectancy = win rate × reward - (1 - win rate) × 1, in R.

This ignores spreads, commissions and slippage, which lower the real result. Backtest to see your own numbers.

Frequently asked questions

What is expectancy in trading?

The average result per trade in R. Positive expectancy means the strategy made money on average on that sample.

Is a high win rate better?

Not necessarily. A 70 percent win rate with a 0.3R target loses money if the losers are -1R.